Ukutshintshwa kwamandla e-Asia Ephakathi akusiyo isihloko esitsha. Kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo, nangona kunjalo, incoko iye yasuka “kucwangciso” yaya “kwithenda.”
Kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2026, amazwe amahlanu ase-Asia Ephakathi athengise i-8.7 GW edibeneyo ye-PV yelanga kunye neeprojekthi zokugcina amandla, ezimele ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka we-127%. Iyonke kulindeleke ukuba idlule kwi-15 GW unyaka wonke. Kwiminyaka emihlanu edlulileyo, bambalwa abakholelwa ukuba imarike inokufikelela kweli nqanaba.
Eli nqaku liqhekeza imephu yendlela yenguqu kwiinkalo ezintathu eziphambili: umthamo ofakiweyo kunye neethagethi, imiqobo yokwenyani kwisiseko segridi kunye nokulinganisa amandla, kunye nemarike yemigodi engaphantsi kwegrid.
Umthamo kunye neeThagethi eziFakelweyo: Amanani kuqala
Umthamo oFakelweyo ukusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2026
Ukusukela nge-1 kaJanuwari ka-2026, iKazakhstan yayine-3,746 MW yomthamo wamandla ahlaziyiweyo afakiweyo, kuquka i-1,353 MW yePV yelanga kunye ne-2,071 MW yamandla omoya.
Kwangelo xesha linye, iUzbekistan yayine-3,347 MW yePV yelanga, i-1,652 MW yamandla omoya, kunye ne-897 MW yomthamo wokugcina amandla ebhetri.
| Ilizwe | Umthamo weSolar PV (MW) | Umthamo wamandla omoya (MW) | Ugcino lwamandla (MW / MWh) | 2030 Ekujoliswe kuko |
| Kazakhstan | 1,353 | 2,071 | — | Ngokumalunga ne-16 GW yomthamo wamandla ahlaziyekayo, ibalwa kwi-15% yomxube wamandla |
| eUzbekistan | 3,347 | 1,652 | 897 | I-8.64 GW yePV yelanga, i-17 GW yamandla omoya, kunye ne-7 GWh yokugcina amandla |
| eKyrgyzstan | 250 (umthamo ocwangcisiweyo phantsi kophuhliso) | — | — | I-3-4 GW eyongezelelweyo kule minyaka mi-2-3 izayo |
| Tajikistan | 250 (icwangciselwe ukuba ize kwi-intanethi ekupheleni konyaka) | — | — | I-Hydropower iseyeyona nto iphambili ekugxilwe kuyo |
Ekujoliswe kuko kunamabhongo angaphezulu kunesakhono sangoku
I-Kazakhstan iceba ukuzisa malunga ne-16 GW yomthamo wamandla ahlaziyekayo kwi-intanethi ngo-2030, ijolise kwisabelo se-15% samandla avuselelekayo. Okujoliswe kuko kunyuka ukuya kuma-50% ngowama-2050.
I-Uzbekistan ineenjongo zamabhongo ngakumbi. Ngo-2030, ijolise ekufikeleleni kwi-8.64 GW ye-solar PV kunye ne-17 GW yamandla omoya, kunye nomthamo welanga odityanisiweyo nomoya omalunga nama-21 GW kunye nesabelo ekujoliswe kuso sombane ohlaziyekayo wama-54%.
Ngokweengxelo zoluntu ngurhulumente wase-Uzbekistan, ukufikelela usukelo luka-2030 kunokonga malunga ne-18 yeebhiliyoni zee-cubic metres zerhasi yendalo ngonyaka kwaye kunciphise ukukhutshwa kwezinto ezikhutshwayo malunga neetoni ezizigidi ezingama-25 ngonyaka.
Ukwandisa umthamo ukusuka kwi-3 GW ukuya kwi-21 GW kuthetha ukwanda ngokuphindwe kasixhenxe. Oku kukhula akunakongezwa ngokulula kwigridi ekhoyo; iziseko ezingundoqo zothumelo kunye namandla okulinganisa amandla nawo kufuneka aphuculwe.
Inyani yoLwakhiwo lwaMandla e-Asia Ephakathi
UkuXhomekeka koMbane oPhezulu wokuThengisa kunye nokuGuquleka okulinganiselweyo
Inkqubo yaMandla yaseAsia Ephakathi (CAPS) ixhomekeke ikakhulu kumandla obushushu kunye nombane wamanzi. Isizukulwana esiqhunyiswa ngamalahle ngokwembali senze ngaphezu kwe-60% yomxube wombane waseKazakhstan, ngelixa i-Uzbekistan ixhomekeke kakhulu kwigesi yendalo yombane.
Izityalo zamandla obushushu zibonelela ngesiseko esomeleleyo kodwa ngokubanzi ziphendula ngokucothayo kwiinguqu ezikhawulezayo kwimfuno yombane kunye nobonelelo. Njengoko umthamo omkhulu womoya kunye namandla elanga angena kwigridi, inkqubo idinga i-ramping ngokukhawuleza kunye nezakhono zokulinganisa - ngokuchanekileyo apho isakhiwo samandla esikhoyo sijongene nemingeni emikhulu.
Izibonelelo zeGridi yokuguga kunye nokunqongophala kwamandla eHlobo
Uninzi lweziseko zokuhambisa kunye nokuhanjiswa kweAsia kuMbindi zakhiwa ngexesha leSoviet. Izixhobo zokuguga kunye nelahleko yosulelo zihlala ziyingxaki. Ngexesha lobushushu behlobo, imfuno yokupholisa umoya idibanisa nemithwalo yokunkcenkceshela kwezolimo, kwaye imimandla emininzi iye yafumana izithintelo zombane.
Oku kunceda ukucacisa ukuba kutheni ukuthengwa kokugcinwa kwamandla ngokukhawuleza kubaluleke kakhulu. Umqhubi akakho nje ukuthobela imigaqo-nkqubo karhulumente. Ngaphandle kokugcinwa okwaneleyo, ukudibanisa iiprojekthi ezinkulu zomoya kunye nelanga kwinkqubo yamandla kuba nzima kakhulu.
Utshintsho kwiMarike yeeThenda zaMandla aVuselelwayo
Ukonyuka okubukhali kwisikali seProjekthi
Kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2026, amazwe amahlanu ase-Asia Ephakathi anike ithenda ye-8.7 GW ye-PV yelanga kunye neeprojekthi zokugcina amandla, ezimele ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka we-127%.
Ngelizwe, iKazakhstan izimeleyo yanikezela ngeeprojekthi ezintathu ezihlanganisiweyo zesola-plus-storage kwikota yesibini ka-2026, kunye nomthamo odibeneyo we-2.3 GW kunye nangaphezulu kwe-900 MWh yokuxhasa ukugcinwa kwamandla. UMphathiswa wezaMandla wase-Uzbekistan ubhengeze umbhobho wokuthenga ogubungela i-3.1 GW yomthamo ngo-2026-2027.
Ugcino lwamandla luba ngoMgangatho Kunokuba luKhethe
Olunye utshintsho oluphambili kukuba iindleko zokuthengwa kokugcinwa kwamandla zigqithise i-30% yexabiso leprojekthi lilonke okokuqala.
| Isakhono esicwangcisiweyo sokuza kwi-Intanethi e-Uzbekistan ngo-2026 | Umthamo (MW) | Yabelana |
| ISolar PV | 2,800 | 41% |
| Amandla okuThermal | 2,500 | 37% |
| Amandla omoya | 470 | 7% |
| Amandla ombane | 68 | 1% |
| Ukugcinwa kwamandla | 884 | 13% |
| Iyonke | 6,770 | 100% |
Izisombululo ezidityanisiweyo zesolar-plus-storage ziba semgangathweni kuwo wonke ummandla. Kubaboneleli bezixhobo, oku kuthetha ukuba ithuba lemarike lokuthengisa iimodyuli zePV zodwa liyacutheka. Ababoneleli abanakho ukunikezela ngesisombululo esipheleleyo - Iimodyuli zePV + ukugcinwa kwamandla + izakhiwo ezixhasayo + ukuhlanganiswa kwegridi — ziya zisanda kwindawo entle.
UkuSebenza kwezeMigodi kunye noMmandla ongekho kwiGridi: IMarike eNgaqikelelwayo
Umbindi we-Asiya unemisebenzi emininzi yemigodi ebekwe kwincam yegridi yamandla, ezinye zisebenza ngaphandle kwegrid ngokupheleleyo. Ezi sayithi zabelana ngeempawu ezintathu eziphambili:
- Umsebenzi oqhubekayo:Izixhobo zokwenziwa kwemigodi nezimbiwa zihlala zisebenza iiyure ezingama-24 ngosuku, nto leyo edala imfuneko yombane ezinzileyo.
- Iimfuno zokuthembeka okuphezulu:Ukucima kombane kunokubangela ilahleko yemveliso.
- Ukuxhomekeka kakhulu kwidizili:Imigodi ye-Off-grid idla ngokuxhomekeke kwiiseti zejenereyitha ye-diesel, ngelixa ukuthuthwa kwamafutha kunye ne-logistics ithatha isabelo esibalulekileyo seendleko zokusebenza.
I-Economics Ibaluleke Ngakumbi kuneeNzuzo zokusiNgqongileyo
Kwimisebenzi yezimayini, umqhubi oyintloko wokwamkela i-PV yelanga ayikho ukunciphisa i-carbon - yindleko esemgangathweni yombane.
Kwiimigodi ezikude ezibekwe ngaphezu kwe-200 km ukusuka kunxibelelwano lwegridi ekufutshane, ixabiso elipheleleyo lombane owenziwe nge-diesel linokuvela kwi-$ 0.40 ukuya kwi-$ 1.00 / kWh. Kwimigodi ekufutshane negridi, iindleko zingavela kwi-$ 0.12 ukuya kwi-$ 0.20 / kWh. Xa iijenereyitha ze-diesel zisebenza kwimithwalo ephantsi, inkunkuma yamafutha inokufikelela kwi-20% -40%.
Ukudibanisa i-PV yelanga kunye nokugcinwa kwamandla kunye neejenereyitha zedizili ezikhoyo kwi-hybrid microgrid kunokunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwamafutha malunga ne-40%. Ukuba uqoqosho luyasebenza, iprojekthi inenkuthazo eyomeleleyo yorhwebo ukuqhubela phambili.
Amaqondo obushushu obushushu aseMbindi Asia azisa enye into ebalulekileyo kwiiprojekthi zemigodi. Izixhobo kufuneka zikwazi ukuqala nokusebenza ngokuthembekileyo ngaphantsi -20°C, nto leyo eyenza ukusebenza kobushushu obuphantsi kube yikhrayitheriya ebalulekileyo yokhetho.
Amathuba kunye nemingeni kwiiNkampani zaseTshayina
Ithuba alikho nje malunga namaXabiso eModyuli yePV
Ukuthunyelwa kwemodyuli yePV yaseTshayina kuMbindi weAsia yonyuke nge-180% ngonyaka kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2026.
Olona ncedo lokwenene lukhuphisanayo luxhomekeke kubuchule bokuhambisa:
- Ngaba iqela loyilo lingavelisa imidwebo ngokuhambelana nemigangatho yendawo, kuquka iYurophu, isiRashiya, okanye iikhowudi zelizwe?
- Ngaba iikhomponenti zezakhiwo zinokuthunyelwa ngokupheleleyo ngokuhambelana neshedyuli yeprojekthi, ukunciphisa ukulibaziseka kwisiza?
- Ngaba ukufakela kwisiza kunokugqitywa ngaphandle kokuxhomekeka kakhulu kumagcisa asekuhlaleni anezakhono eziphezulu?
Imiqobo emithathu eSebenzayo yokuNgena kwiMarike
Umqobo woku-1: Imigangatho kunye neeKhowudi. Iiprojekthi ze-Asia Ephakathi zihlala zifuna ukuthotyelwa kwemigangatho yaseYurophu (EN 1993 / EN 1090) okanye imigangatho yaseRashiya (SNiP). Imizobo kunye nokubala kwezakhiwo kufuneka kuhlengahlengiswe kwisistim yekhowudi esebenzayo. Ukukwazi kweqela loyilo lokusebenza kwimigangatho emininzi kunokugqiba ngokuthe ngqo ukuba inkampani ifanelekele iprojekthi.
Umqobo wesi-2: ULungiselelo kunye noGunyaziso lweZintlu. Amazwe akuMbindi weAsiya avaliwe. Emva kokufika kwizibuko, imithwalo isenokufuna ukuhamba ngaphezu kweekhilomitha ezingama-2 000 emhlabeni. Imilinganiselo yecandelo kunye nokupakishwa kufuneka kuthathelwe ingqalelo kwizithintelo zothutho lukaloliwe kunye neendlela.
Isithintelo 3: IiWindows zokwakha. I-Asia Ephakathi inobusika obude, kwaye ixesha lokwakha elisebenzayo lihlala kuphela iinyanga ezi-6-8. Iishedyuli zeeprojekthi kufuneka zichaze ngalo mda kunokuba zilandele amaxesha okwakha aqhele ukusetyenziswa kwimimandla enemozulu epholileyo.
Imibuzo Ebuzwa Rhoqo
I-Q1: Ziziphi abaqhubi abaphambili bemakethe ye-PV yelanga ye-Asia Ephakathi?
Kukho abaqhubi abathathu abaphambili: imfuno ekhulayo yombane, iziseko zombane ezigugayo kunye nokunqongophala kombane wasehlotyeni, kunye nokuchazwa ngokucacileyo iinjongo zikarhulumente kunye nezibonelelo zerhafu. Ukusetyenziswa kombane wase-Uzbekistan kuqikelelwa ukuba kuya kufikelela kwi-123 billion kWh ngo-2035. Iiprojekthi zamandla avuselelekayo e-Uzbekistan nazo zingafanelekela ukukhululwa kwirhafu yepropati kunye nerhafu yomhlaba iminyaka eyi-10.
I-Q2: Kutheni ukugcinwa kwamandla kubaluleke kakhulu kwi-Asia Ephakathi?
Njengoko isabelo somoya kunye namandla elanga sikhula, igridi idinga amandla okulinganisa okuphendula ngokukhawuleza. Ukuthengwa kokugcinwa kwamandla okudlula i-30% yexabiso leprojekthi lilonke libonisa utshintsho olusuka kwi-add-on olukhethiweyo ukuya kwicandelo eliphambili lokuhlanganiswa kwegridi.
I-Q3: Sesiphi isisombululo samandla esifanelekileyo kwiiprojekthi zemigodi ye-off-grid?
I-hybrid microgrid edibanisa i-PV yelanga, ukugcinwa kwamandla, kunye neejenereyitha zedizili ezikhoyo ezigcinwe njenge-backup lukhetho olusebenzayo. Olu lungelelwaniso lungacutha ukusetyenziswa kwamafutha malunga nama-40% kwaye kusenakho ukunciphisa umthamo ofunekayo wejenereyitha yedizili ukuya kuma-30% ukuya kuma-50% omgangatho wokuqala. Isitshixo yinkqubo yolawulo ekwaziyo ukuguquguquka okugudileyo phakathi kwemithombo yamandla.
I-Q4: Ngoobani abakhuphisana abaphambili beenkampani zaseTshayina kwimarike yendawo?
Abona bantu bakhuphisana nabo baquka iinkampani zaseYurophu, zaseTurkey, nezaseMzantsi Korea, kunye neefemu zobunjineli zalapha ekhaya. Iinkampani zaseTshayina zixhamla kwiikhonkco zokubonelela kunye nokuhanjiswa ngokukhawuleza, kodwa zinokujamelana nemingeni enxulumene neenkonzo zendawo kunye nokuqhelana nemigangatho yendawo.
I-Q5: Ziziphi iziqinisekiso ezifunekayo ukungena kwimarike ye-Central Asia?
Kwizakhiwo zentsimbi, iiprojekthi zidla ngokufuna i-EN 1090 (ukumakishwa kwe-CE) kunye neziqinisekiso zenkqubo yolawulo ezifana ne-ISO 9001, ISO 14001, kunye ne-ISO 45001. Iimodyuli ze-PV ngokubanzi zifuna ukuthotyelwa kwe-IEC 61215 kunye ne-IEC 61730. Ezinye iiprojekthi zikwafuna uphicotho lwefektri yomntu wesithathu, olufana nolo lwenziwa yi-SGS okanye i-BV.
Ngaba unemibuzo malunga neeprojekthi zamandla kuMbindi Asia? Qhagamshelana nathi ku info@xzbesta.com
